If you didn’t catch this mornings National Retail Federation back-to-school briefing, here’s a quick recap. The short, but informative session covered what to expect this season, including fresh consumer data and the impact of tariffs on spending. 

The speakers spotlighted major trends shaping back-to-school shopping, touching on consumer sentiment, economic pressures, and shifts in spending behavior.

Here are the key takeaways from my notes:

Overview of Consumer Sentiment and Economic Context

• Consumer sentiment is weak but household net worth is high, with discretionary income growth and wages outpacing inflation.
• Unemployment remains low, but job creation has slowed, raising concerns about future economic stability.
• Debt levels are high but manageable for most households, although lower-income households face more challenges.

Back-to-School Shopping Trends

• Consumers are starting their shopping earlier due to concerns about stock shortages and rising prices.
• 67% of back-to-school families began shopping in July, up from 55% the previous year, driven by tariff concerns.
• Consumers are looking to spread out their spending and take advantage of sales.
  

Spending Expectations and Consumer Behavior

• College students and families expect to spend over $1,300 on average, while back-to-school families expect to spend about $850, slightly down from last year.
• Electronics spending is declining as consumers are cautious about prices influenced by tariffs.

Changes in Shopping Habits

• There is an increase in consumers purchasing essential items like clothing and dorm furnishings, while spending on electronics and discretionary items is down.
• Higher-income households are shifting to discount shopping and brand trading down to save money.

Impact of Tariffs on Retail

• Retailers are working to keep prices low despite tariff impacts, but uncertainty around tariffs complicates planning.
• Concerns about inflation and tariffs are leading consumers to rethink essential purchases and shopping strategies.

As the landscape evolves, I hope updates like these help you shape your business outlook. SIMA is a member-driven organization, here to support the business of surfing and help our members and specialty retailers thrive.

If you have any questions, or if your membership has lapsed, feel free to reach out. I’d love to keep you in the loop on insights like this throughout the year.

Best,

Vipe Desai

Executive Director